Three more weeks! The time for one or two Breaking (RE)NEWS before the European elections! And we can't wait. Because the momentum of the transition in Europe and particularly in France is becoming increasingly short. If we are to believe the exclusive from Les Echos, the Ministry of Ecological Transition has been asked to find an additional 1.4 billion euros in savings, as part of the new 10 billion euro savings plan announced by Bercy. Arbitrations are underway at Matignon, and the landing point could be around 1 billion euros. To quote Les Echos, "the billions for the ecological transition are gradually disappearing. After already being heavily called upon during the first budget savings plan announced in February, the Ministry of Ecological Transition could again be affected by the second plan." The 2024 draft budget had displayed some ambition in this area, with 7 billion euros in new credits (and 10 billion in commitments) dedicated this year to the ecological transition. The first savings plan had already seriously cut this target, reducing the increase in credits to 5 billion, which would ultimately be only 3.6 to 4 billion euros.
All highly symbolic, as the revolt of member states, in this pre-electoral period, against elements of the Green Deal that they themselves had ratified, continues. And the most recent political developments, such as in the Netherlands with a new government formed around a climate-skeptic far right, are not moving in the right direction. Fortunately, the latest analysis from the Schuman Foundation puts some of this into perspective. According to their detailed analysis of current polls across all EU countries, the major political balances within the European Parliament should not change, barring a major surprise. The alliance of conservatives, social democrats, and liberals should, by a small margin, continue to lead Europe. Relief for the transition, we can hope. Especially since the defense of the Green Deal is organizing!
Voices are multiplying calling for its deepening, particularly among business leaders. Nearly fifteen business leader associations (including Mouvement Impact France and the Communauté des Entreprises à Mission) have thus penned an article in La Croix, to sign a clearly worded opinion piece: "The need to continue the transition – and therefore not to give up on the momentum of the Green Deal – is crucial for more than one reason. Giving up means jeopardizing the development and prosperity of this economy for the common good and of these companies at the forefront of transitions. Giving up also means jeopardizing the Union's sustainability goals and taking the risk that Europe further slows its transition towards a more inclusive, fair, and green economy. Finally, giving up means favoring business as usual and betting on the resilience of the economic models of our European companies, which have nevertheless been undermined by the crises of recent years. In this, it means renouncing models that are more resource-efficient, more autonomous, and vectors of social cohesion, by nature more protective of companies in the face of shocks. " One could not say it better!
Other voices, and least of all, those of NGOs, through an open letter, with more alarmist tones, signed by 150 of them, including WWF, France Nature Environnement, Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Oxfam, … In short, the Green Deal is not dead. It will need to be made more intelligible, more concrete, entail less bureaucracy, and its objectives better shared by citizen-voters-consumers, if we want the 2029 European elections to be less stressful than the upcoming ones!
To begin our weekly sections, let's start with our favorite: the weather! We already knew that the global average temperatures of June, July, and August 2023 were ranked as the highest since records began in the late 19th century, we now know, thanks to a study published Tuesday, May 14 in the journal Nature, that the summer of 2023 was the hottest in two thousand years in the northern hemisphere outside the tropics. But how do we know, since no general temperature measurement existed during Christ's brief time on earth (for those who believe)? Tree rings have spoken! To go far back in time, the researchers combined temperature observations with past climate reconstructions. They used one of the most precise seasonal climate archives: tree rings, rings that appear inside trunks and whose width is correlated with the temperature of the growing season, i.e., summer. This allows them to estimate thermometer variations year by year. " We based our study on fifteen different reconstructions of the last two thousand years, using thousands of trees in nine regions of the northern hemisphere ", details Jan Esper, quoted by Le Monde. This data series from living and dead trees (beams, archaeological remains…) is the most complete and longest to date.
In the same spirit, the press release of the week was published by two major institutes, the World Meteorological Organization and the European observatory Copernicus, warning about the extent of warming on the Old Continent. " The three warmest years ever recorded in Europe have all occurred since 2020, we read before an unequivocal observation: This is the fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising about twice as fast as the global average. " Indeed, not all places on the planet are warming at the same rate. " It is one of the characteristics of the Earth system; climate changes are not uniform in space, with particularly more marked temperature variations on continents and near the Arctic, summarizes Aurélien Ribes, a researcher at Météo-France at the National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM, CNRS), quoted in Le Monde. This was the case during the last glacial period, and it is also the case now, with significant differences in the magnitude of human-caused global warming depending on the region. »
The useful reminder of the week comes to us from ADEME: "There is nothing more unjust than not making the transition"! The "just transition," enshrined in the Paris Agreement, made a clear assumption: the fight against global warming must take into account its economic and social impacts on populations and businesses. This concept of just transition is the basis of ADEME's opinion entitled: " Greening the economy and society: the ambitious trajectory of the just transition ", recently published. A focus on a concept long unknown to the general public. An opinion that also addresses thorny issues. That of the Yellow Vests is mentioned thus by Patrick Jolivet, Director of Socio-Economic Studies at ADEME: " The Yellow Vests were not refusing environmental measures as such; they especially wanted access to alternatives, electric cars or public transport, to avoid seeing their mandatory energy expenses explode ". More transition, therefore, not less. The final word goes to Solange Martin, sociologist at ADEME: " Let's not let people believe that the ecological transition generates injustices that justify climate inaction. Because in the end, there is nothing more unjust than not making the transition ".
On this subject the injustice of the week, of the month, and of recent decades is still world hunger, which always strikes the same people. And it's not only humans who are killed or made ill; the planet is also, for the same reasons, according to the latest World Bank report, quoted by Le Monde, which states loud and clear: "The global food system needs to be repaired because it is making the planet sick." The cause: our agricultural and agri-food systems, which must be "drastically" reoriented on the one hand to ensure decent subsistence for all, and on the other hand to stop degrading the environment that feeds us! Nothing very original in the World Bank's conclusions, which notably denounce intensive agriculture based on too many and toxic fertilizers and pesticides.
The cue is too obviously given not to take it, so we will mention the "Ecophyto plan of the week" that the government has just presented, succeeding the previous two – two manifest failures. You can view it here. You will find a major change in the criteria used, whose main interest is to visually reduce the use of pesticides in France. It's an understatement to say that scientists and healthcare professionals are not convinced: at least 600 of them have just signed an opinion piece in Le Monde where they say all the harm they think of the new criteria, denouncing a method consisting of "breaking the thermometer," which has little chance of curing the patient…
The sector of the week is undeniably the automotive industry, electric if possible, with the signing of the sector contract with the State. For its part, the State commits to maintaining purchase aids through the ecological bonus, which has been revised to favor "made in France," and social leasing, which will be renewed in 2025 after a successful first phase. "We have ten years to accomplish the revolution from thermal to electric," recalled Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy. The issue of greening corporate fleets is also a challenge for structuring a second-hand market. A bill on this subject is currently being examined in Parliament. Regarding electric trucks, the sector contract relies on a very strong growth in sales (at least ten times more in 2027 than in 2023) to reach, by 2030, 50% of new registrations. But what the Government especially wants, according to Actu-Environnement, is for electric cars sold in France to be manufactured on national territory, like the Peugeot e-3008 in Sochaux and the Renault R5 in Douai. With the target of 2 million electrified vehicles produced in France per year by 2030. Today, France manufactures 11.7% of electric vehicles registered in France. But sales seem to be shifting towards European manufacturing. While China manufactured about 40% of units sold in Europe in 2023, this rate has been falling since the beginning of 2024 to reach 8.8% in April. This development favors Spain, but France also hopes to encourage it. The sector contract also addresses the essential – and problematic – issues of the number of electric charging points, the electrification of the thermal fleet, eco-design, … All subjects where challenges remain numerous.
Even if some surprised their world, winning the title of " surprise of the week ", like the boss of Stellantis, Carlos Tavares, "seller of Chinese cars in Europe," to use the headline from Le Point. Despite its fourteen brands, Stellantis decided to call on the Chinese brand Leapmotor to offer an affordable small electric model in Europe... The pragmatism of the CEO of the Franco-Italian-American automotive group spoke, preferring the simpler but also less costly to manufacture and easier to make profitable Leapmotor models to the expensive, "premium" electric versions of Fiat. A partner manufacturer of which he has held, since October 26, 2023, 21% of the brand and with whom he founded the joint venture Leapmotor International, based in Amsterdam (Netherlands), which he controls at 51%. As a reminder, Carlos Tavares had no words harsh enough just a few weeks ago to stigmatize the European policy in favor of the electric car, which in his opinion was opening the market too much to the Chinese...
A change of sector, with aviation and the headline of the week which comes to us, as often, from Libération with its article entitled "The French persist in the air." Nice, isn't it? Attractiveness of low-cost flights, May bank holidays… Despite a decrease in domestic flights, air traffic has returned to its highest historical level, pre-Covid, and the upward trend continues. Some travelers will "take the train," certainly, but that does not change the situation. And it is undoubtedly a shame because, as we will see below, a true decarbonization of the sector is not coming tomorrow, nor even the day after, and in any case not before 2050, contrary to commitments made.
Indeed, the figure of the week could be: 60. As in the equivalent of 60 nuclear power plants that would need to be entirely dedicated to decarbonizing air transport if we truly wanted to achieve it… Under these conditions, is the carbon neutrality targeted by the aviation sector by 2050 really achievable, L'Usine Nouvelle wonders? Given the investments required to implement the heavy infrastructure capable of providing enough kerosene substitutes, doubt is allowed. In an opinion published Wednesday, May 15, the Air and Space Academy (AAE) estimates – at the European Union scale – the amount of investment at around 40 billion euros per year. As for the electricity production needed, it amounts to about 650 terawatt-hours per year (TWh/year), the equivalent of 60 new-generation nuclear reactors. Mission impossible? " The goal of carbon neutrality for air transport seems very difficult to achieve, summarizes Michel Wachenheim, president of the AAE. However, we cannot say it is unrealistic, because it is achievable by making the necessary investments. " While the AAE experts are cautious about interpreting their work, their conclusions are close to those established last year in a report by the Academy of Technologies. The document already emphasized both the need to deploy large-scale industrial infrastructure and the need to decide on its launch as soon as possible, given the time constraints.
Which brings us very naturally to the question of the week, posed by Le Monde : "Will planes soon fly on hydrogen?" The question is simple, and the evening daily's answer (as we said when we didn't read LeMonde.fr) has the merit of being clear: No! To fly planes with hydrogen, the engines of current aircraft need to be changed. And not just the engines: the whole plane must be redesigned. Airbus announces it is working on a first hydrogen plane for 2035 – but many specialists consider this date very optimistic. If this timeline is met, it will be a single aircraft, of an experimental nature. Then new planes need to be produced, airports modified, pilots trained, and finally airlines need to renew their fleets – so we are already in 2050 and, in the meantime, we haven't decarbonized much. Especially since it cannot work for long-haul flights, like transatlantic flights, because hydrogen is a gas that takes up a lot of space, so a much larger tank is needed, Le Monde specifies.
In the meantime, the rain of the week is that of investments seeding our beautiful country, according to "Choose France," which took place, under presidential leadership, at the beginning of the week. Record investments, in number as in value, let's not hide our pleasure but also add some caveats, following Géraldine Poivert on Linkedin : "Choose the green growth," that is the goal and we are not there yet, but we are getting there.
The General Meetings of the week are those of banks in the United States. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others are the subject of unprecedented shareholder resolutions questioning them about their financing of energy industries. Shareholders and NGOs are putting particularly strong pressure on banks. The New York City pension fund, supported by the Church of England (no "dangerous left-wing woke-ists," therefore), filed a resolution with JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, CitiGroup, Goldman Sachs, and Royal Bank of Canada with an unprecedented request to publish a ratio of fossil fuel financing versus sustainable energy financing. With some success, since three of these resolutions were withdrawn before the AGMs: JP Morgan, CitiGroup, and Royal Bank of Canada have committed to publishing this ratio.
Somewhat in the same spirit, the trials of the week also come from the United States: a US Congress report based on thousands of internal oil company documents denounces their climate denial strategies. Senators and NGOs are calling on the federal government to launch legal proceedings. The oil majors are already the subject of about thirty lawsuits seeking damages from US states, reports Novethic. The report shows how the industry's discourse has transformed in recent decades to continue maintaining confusion. From suppressed scientific reports in the 60s, to questioning the reality of climate change, up to the current phase of "light climate denial" as described by Sheldon Whitehouse, chairman of the Senate budget committee and co-author of the report. A phase in which the majors declare themselves committed to reducing their emissions, whereas the oil industry has done everything to " block significant progress on climate safety ". The American Petroleum Institute, questioned by the Financial Times, called the report " unfounded rhetoric in an election year ". Exxon, for its part, defended itself by saying that " as we have said many times, climate change is real and we have an entire business dedicated to reducing emissions ". But despite its denials, the US oil industry will face more and more legal action. The Center for Climate Integrity has already identified 33 ongoing lawsuits in the United States launched by states or local governments against the oil majors. Among the most recent, the one launched by California in September 2023 against ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron could be damaging. The state asks the court to require oil companies to pay for the damage caused to the environment and to impose fines for their lies about climate change. Between complaints for greenwashing or those for climate damage, legal actions brought by public authorities almost all denounce the oil majors' climate denial. The Congressional report provides them with new arguments to put forward during these proceedings.
On the resource side, the advice of popular common sense of the week could be "not to put all your eggs in one basket." Especially when it comes to rare earths and other minerals essential for the transition. And yet! One of the conclusions of the second report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on critical metals for the green transition, made public this Friday, May 17, is precisely that market concentration has increased between 2020 and 2023 (particularly for nickel, cobalt, and copper) and above all that this dynamic is likely to continue in the next decade. "Overall, the supply landscape is a little better than two years ago, although work remains to be done. But the same cannot be said for diversification," explains the report, mentioned by L'Usine Nouvelle. A good graph is worth a long speech:
If you haven't guessed, red represents China. Unsurprisingly, it is omnipresent. It is in the Asian giant (which is also the largest consumer of metals) that more than half of the new copper, lithium, or cobalt refineries planned by the end of the decade will be located. Even more concerning, Beijing will by that date concentrate 70% of rare earth refining for electric motors and nearly 95% of the world's production of battery-grade graphite, estimates the IEA. On the mining side, the majority of lithium will still come from Australia and Chile (though China is expected to surpass them), and more than half of nickel and cobalt will continue to come, respectively, from Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (two potentially unstable countries where Chinese capital already controls a substantial part of mining production). In other words, as L'Usine Nouvelle puts it: " The geopolitical risk is here to stay in the metals of the green transition. »
Resource again, the bad news that is objectively rather good of the week is Saudi Arabia's return to the beginnings of lucidity. Do you remember the pharaonic project presented in 2021, "The Line," this futuristic vertical city built in the middle of the desert, a concrete and high-tech oasis in the middle of nowhere, cooled by a giant air conditioning system and giant swimming pools? Its announced length was 170 kilometers. Three years later, ambitions have been scaled back. Drastically! Its length should ultimately be only 2.4 kilometers by 2030, so seventy times shorter, reveals L'Usine Nouvelle. At (RE)SET, we have difficulty regretting it
Finally, resources, "Our friends the animals" of the weekare the canine brigades of the Perpignan metropolitan area (which includes 36 municipalities)! In France, about 20% of transported drinking water is lost due to leaks in the distribution network. Some local authorities want to improve this efficiency by any means, notably through these canine brigades, composed of dogs trained to sniff out chlorine odors and thus detect underground leaks. For the PerpignanMetropolitan area, the local authority's stated objective is to reduce the leak rate to 10% by 2035. We applaud on all four paws. Woof woof (apocryphal quote from the dog in the photo)
Biodiversity requires, the concept of the week comes to us, for a change, from across the Channel: "No Mow May." The newspaper Libération looked into this movement that is spreading in the United Kingdom, which consists of not mowing one's lawn short in May. With the return of nice weather, you might be itching to take out the mower and clear the way to put deckchairs and a parasol in the garden? Not so fast. The wild grasses in your lawn are biodiversity's best allies. To deconstruct the obligation to razor your patch of grass, the "No Mow May" movement, was born six years ago and is now inspiring even French public gardens. The goal is to leave your mower in the garage all May to give nature a little respite. While seven out of ten French people have a garden, mowing your lawn less is a way to contribute, on your own scale, to maintaining biodiversity. Because 80% of insects have disappeared in thirty years, a true silent mass extinction. Indeed, mowing before the summer and its inevitable heat promotes water evaporation and therefore "increases the risk of drought and yellowing of the lawn." Leaving at least ten centimeters of grass, on the contrary, preserves lotuses, daisies, and clovers, all those plants teeming with life under our feet. Birds can find seeds and insects to feed on there; earthworms aerate the soil, creating fine channels that allow rainwater to spread uniformly; and butterflies come to taste the nectar of the flowers. In short, thanks to Breaking (RE)NEWS, you have found the best excuse to save your back and not mow the lawn. Don't thank us.
The riddle from last week was a photograph, and you were asked to guess which moment it froze on film, as we said when there was still film. The clue was that it was not Ukraine, because it was actually taken in February… in Aveyron. It is the fire of a lithium battery warehouse: 1,276 tonnes of lithium batteries volatilized in a blaze. Since then, there has been worse, near Lyon, last month, a new 1,000 m² battery warehouse caught fire, and with it, 2 million batteries dedicated to electronic labels in store aisles. According to Libération, quoting the president of the Recycling Companies Federation, François Excoffier, " between 2014 and 2019, fires on [their] recycling sites increased by 150%, with about 150 fires each year ". Without specifying whether all these accidents were linked to lithium batteries, he nevertheless targeted them, speaking of an " incendiary bomb being spread everywhere ".
This week's riddle seems ridiculously easy but isn't. What is the world's highest point? A clue: trying to remember your elementary school lessons is useless; it's not the right answer.
[As a reminder, (RE)SET, founded in 2019, is the first independent consulting firm dedicated to economic and environmental transition and built for action. "(RE)SET: resources to win environmental and economic battles!" Inevitably partial, sometimes biased, always committed, this media review with its often spirited, even impertinent tone, in no way commits (RE)SET in its consulting activities, but it paints a picture we find interesting of the state of the transition as it appears in the press and research. A snapshot of the debate, of the forces at play, the oppositions, the convergences, which we hope is useful for your decisions and for building your transition strategies.]
