Three weeks to go! Time for one or two Breaking (RE)NEWS, before the European elections! And we can't wait. Because the wind of transition in Europe, and particularly in France, is getting shorter and shorter. According to an exclusive in Les Echos, the French Ministry of Ecological Transition has been asked to find a further 1.4 billion euros in savings, as part of the new 10 billion euro savings plan announced by Bercy. Arbitration is underway at Matignon, and the landing point could be around 1 billion euros. To quote Les Echos, "the billions for the ecological transition are gradually disappearing. Having already been hit hard by the first budget savings plan announced in February, the Ministry of Ecological Transition could once again bear the brunt of the second plan". The Finance Bill for 2024 displayed a certain ambition in this area, with 7 billion euros in new credits (and 10 billion in commitments) dedicated this year to the ecological transition. The first savings plan had already severely curtailed this objective, reducing the increase in appropriations to 5 billion, which would ultimately only be between 3.6 and 4 billion euros.
This is all the more symbolic given that, in the run-up to the elections, member states are continuing to rebel against the elements of the Green Pact they themselves endorsed. And the latest political developments, such as in the Netherlands with a new government formed around the extreme right-wing climate sceptics, are not going in the right direction. Fortunately, the latest analysis from the Schuman Foundation puts all this into perspective. According to their detailed analysis of current polls in all EU countries, the major political balances within the European Parliament are unlikely to change, barring a major surprise. The alliance of conservatives, social democrats and liberals should, with a small margin, continue to lead Europe. Relief for the transition, we hope. Especially as the defense of the Green Deal is getting organized!
A growing number of business leaders are calling for a more in-depth study of the issue. Nearly fifteen associations of business leaders (including Mouvement Impact France and Communauté des Entreprises à Mission) have taken up the pen, in La Croix, to sign an opinion piece with clear accents: "The need to pursue the transition - and therefore not to give up on the momentum of the Green Deal - is crucial in more ways than one. To give up is to jeopardize the development and prosperity of this economy for the common good and of these companies at the forefront of transitions. Giving up would also jeopardize the Union's sustainability objectives, and run the risk of Europe further slowing down its transition to a more inclusive, fair and green economy. Finally, giving up would mean opting for business as usual, and banking on the resilience of our European companies' business models, which have been severely tested by the crises of recent years. In so doing, we're giving up on models that are more resource-efficient, more autonomous and vectors of social cohesion, and by their very nature more protective of companies in the face of shocks." One couldn't say it better!
Other voices, to say the least, are those of the NGOs, in an open letter with more alarmist overtones, signed by 150 of them, including WWF, France Nature Environnement, Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Oxfam, etc. In short, Green Deal is not dead. All that remains is to make it more intelligible, more concrete, involving less bureaucracy, and its objectives better shared by citizens-voters-consumers, if we want the European elections of 2029 to be less stressful than those to come!
To kick off our weekly features, let's start with our favorite: the weather! We already knew that the average global temperatures for June, July and August 2023 had been classified as the highest since records began at the end of the 19th century, and now we know, thanks to a study published Tuesday May 14 in the journal Nature, that the summer of 2023 has turned out to be the hottest ever recorded for two thousand years in the Northern Hemisphere outside the tropics. But how do we know this, given that no general temperature measurements existed during Christ's brief presence on earth (for those who believe)? Tree rings have spoken! To go back a long way in time, researchers cross-referenced temperature observations with reconstructions of past climates. They used one of the finest climate archives available on a seasonal scale: tree rings, the rings that appear inside tree trunks and whose width correlates with the temperature of the growing season, i.e. summer. They can thus be used to estimate thermometer variations to the nearest year. " We used fifteen different reconstructions of the last two thousand years, based on thousands of trees in nine regions of the Northern Hemisphere ", explains Jan Esper, quoted by Le Monde. This series of data from living and dead trees (beams, archaeological remains...) is the longest and most complete to date.
In the same spirit, the communiqué of the week was issued by two major institutes, the World Meteorological Organization and the European observatory Copernicus, warning of the extent of warming on the Old Continent. The three hottest years on record in Europe have all occurred since 2020," the report states, before making a stark observation: "Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world, with temperatures rising about twice as fast as the global average. In fact, not all parts of the planet are warming in the same way. It's one of the characteristics of the Earth system that climate changes are not uniform across space, with temperature variations more marked on the continents and near the Arctic," summarizes Aurélien Ribes, a researcher at Météo-France's Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM, CNRS), quoted in Le Monde. This was the case during the last ice age, and it is also the case today, with major differences in the amplitude of human-induced global warming depending on the zone. "
This week's useful reminder comes from ADEME: "There's nothing more unfair than not making the transition"! The "just transition", enshrined in the Paris Agreement, made a clear postulate: the fight against global warming must take into account its economic and social impacts on populations and businesses. This concept of just transition forms the basis of ADEME's recently published opinion entitled: " Greening the economy and society: the ambitious trajectory of just transition ". We take a closer look at a concept that has long been little-known to the general public. An opinion that also tackles the subjects that make people angry. Patrick Jolivet, Director of Socio-Economic Studies at ADEME, refers to the Gilets Jaunes as follows: " The Gilets Jaunes were not rejecting environmental measures as such, but rather demanding access to alternatives, such as electric cars or public transport, so as not to see their energy costs soar. More transition, not less. The final word goes to Solange Martin, sociologist at ADEME: " Let's not give the impression that ecological transition generates injustices that justify climate inaction. In the long run, there is nothing more unfair than not making the transition.
In this respect, the injustice of the week, the month and the last few decades is still world hunger, which always strikes the same people. And it's not just humans who are being killed or made sick, the planet is too, for the same reasons, according to the latest World Bank report, quoted by Le Monde, which states loud and clear: "The global food system needs to be fixed because it is making the planet sick." At issue: our agricultural and agri-food systems, which need to be "drastically" reoriented in order to ensure a dignified livelihood for all, on the one hand, and to stop degrading the environment that feeds us, on the other! There's nothing very original in the World Bank's conclusions, which condemn intensive agriculture based on excessive use of toxic fertilizers and pesticides.
The opportunity is too obvious not to seize it, and so we're going to talk about the "Ecophyto plan of the week" just presented by the government, which follows on from the two previous plans - both of which were obvious failures. You can consult it here. You'll find a major change in the criteria used, the main benefit of which is to visually reduce the use of pesticides in France. It would be an understatement to say that scientists and healthcare professionals are not convinced: at least 600 of them have just signed an article in Le Monde in which they express their displeasure with the new criteria, denouncing a method of "breaking the thermometer" that is unlikely to cure the patient...
The sector of the week is undoubtedly the automotive industry, electric if possible, with the signing of the industry contract with the French government. For its part, the French government is committed to maintaining support for car purchases through the ecological bonus, which has been revised to encourage "made in France", and social leasing, which will be renewed in 2025 after a successful first phase. "We have ten years to complete the revolution from internal combustion to electric vehicles", said Bruno Le Maire, French Minister for the Economy. The issue of greening corporate fleets is also a key factor in structuring the second-hand market. A bill on this subject is currently before Parliament. As far as electric trucks are concerned, the industry contract bets on a very sharp rise in sales (at least ten times more in 2027 than in 2023), to reach 50% of new registrations by 2030. But according to Actu-Environnement, what the government really wants is for all electric cars sold in France to be made in France, like Peugeot's e-3008 in Sochaux and Renault's R5 in Douais. The target is to produce 2 million electrified vehicles a year in France by 2030. Today, France manufactures 11.7% of all electric vehicles registered in the country. But sales seem to be shifting towards European production. While China was manufacturing around 40% of the vehicles sold in Europe in 2023, this figure has been falling since the beginning of 2024, reaching 8.8% in April. This trend favors Spain, but France also hopes to encourage it. The industry contract also addresses the essential - and problematic - issues of the number of electric recharging points, the electrification of the internal combustion engine fleet, eco-design, etc., all of which present numerous challenges.
Even if some of them surprised everyone, earning the title of " surprise of the week ", like Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares, "selling Chinese cars in Europe", to quote the headline in Le Point. In spite of its fourteen brands, Stellantis has decided to call on the Chinese Leapmotor to offer a small, affordable electric model in Europe... The pragmatism of the Franco-Italian-American automotive group's CEO has thus spoken, preferring the simpler Leapmotor to Fiat's costly electric versions, which are classified as "premium" but also less expensive to manufacture and easier to make profitable. Since October 26, 2023, he has owned 21% of the Leapmotor brand, with which he has set up the Leapmotor International joint venture, based in Amsterdam (Netherlands), in which he has a 51% stake. As a reminder, a few weeks ago, Carlos Tavares didn't use harsh enough words to stigmatize European policy in favor of electric cars, which, in his opinion, was opening up the market too much to the Chinese...
A change of sector, with air travel, and this week's headline comes, as so often, from Libération, with its article entitled "Les français s'entêtent en l'air". Nice, isn't it? Attractiveness of low-cost flights, May bank holidays... Despite a drop in domestic flights, air traffic has returned to its pre-Covid peak, and the (upward) trend remains unchanged. Some travellers may "take the train", but that doesn't change the situation. And that's undoubtedly a pity, because as we shall see below, true decarbonization of the sector is not for tomorrow, or even the day after tomorrow, and in any case not before 2050, contrary to the commitments made.
In fact, the figure of the week could be 60, the equivalent of the 60 nuclear power plants that would have to be entirely devoted to decarbonizing air transport if we really wanted to achieve it... Under these conditions, is the carbon neutrality targeted by the air transport sector by 2050 really achievable, asks L'Usine Nouvelle? In view of the investment required to build the heavy infrastructures needed to provide sufficient substitutes for kerosene, there are grounds for doubt. In an opinion published on Wednesday May 15, the Académie de l'Air et de l'Espace (AAE) estimates - on a European Union scale - the amount of investment at some 40 billion euros a year. Electricity production needs are estimated at around 650 terawatt-hours per year (TWh/year), equivalent to 60 new-generation nuclear reactors. Mission impossible? The goal of carbon neutrality for air transport seems very difficult to achieve," sums up Michel Wachenheim, Chairman of the AAE. However, we can't say that it's unrealistic, because it's achievable if we make the necessary investments. " While the AAE experts are cautious about interpreting their work, their conclusions are similar to those set out last year in a report by the Académie des Technologies. The document already stressed the need to deploy major industrial infrastructures, but also to decide on their launch as quickly as possible, given the timeframes involved.
Which brings us naturally to the question of the week, posed by Le Monde: "Will planes soon be flying on hydrogen? The question is simple, and the answer from the evening paper (as we used to say when we weren't reading LeMonde.fr) has the merit of being clear: no! To make airplanes fly on hydrogen, we need to change the engines of today's aircraft. And not just the engines: the entire aircraft must be redesigned. Airbus has announced that it is working on the first hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2035 - but many specialists consider this date to be highly optimistic. If this deadline is met, it will be a single, experimental aircraft. Then we'll have to produce the new aircraft, modify the airports, train the pilots, and finally get the airlines to renew their fleets - so it's already 2050, and we haven't decarbonized much in the meantime. What's more, it won't work for long-haul flights, such as transatlantic ones, since hydrogen is a gas that takes up a lot of space, so you need a much larger tank," points out Le Monde.
In the meantime, the rain of the week is that of investments in our beautiful country, according to "Choose France", which was held under presidential auspices at the beginning of the week. Record investments, both in terms of numbers and value, so let's not deny ourselves some pleasure, but let's also add a few caveats, as Géraldine Poivert did on Linkedin: "Choose the green growth", that's the objective, and we're not there yet, but we're getting there.
This week's shareholders' meetings are those of the banks in the USA. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others are the subject of unprecedented shareholder resolutions questioning their financing of the energy industry. Shareholders and NGOs are putting particularly strong pressure on the banks. The New York City pension fund, backed by the Church of England (no "dangerous leftists", that is), has filed a resolution with JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, CitiGroup, Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Canada, asking them to publish a ratio of fossil fuel versus sustainable energy financing. With some success, since three of these resolutions were withdrawn before the AGMs: JP Morgan, CitiGroup and Royal Bank of Canada undertook to publish this ratio.
In a similar vein, the lawsuits of the week also come from the USA: a US Congressional report based on thousands of internal oil company documents denounces their climate denial strategies. Senators and NGOs are calling on the federal government to launch legal proceedings. Novethic reports that the oil majors are already the subject of some thirty lawsuits seeking compensation from American states. The report shows how the industry's discourse has been transformed over the last few decades to maintain the vagueness. From the scientific reports suppressed in the 60s, through the questioning of the reality of climate change, to the current phase of "climate denial lite" as described by Sheldon Whitehouse, Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, co-author of the report. A phase in which the majors declare their commitment to reducing emissions, while the oil industry has done everything in its power to " block significant progress on climate security ". The American Petroleum Institute, interviewed by the Financial Times, called the report " unfounded rhetoric in an election year ". Exxon, for its part, defended itself by saying that " as we've said many times, climate change is real and we have an entire business dedicated to reducing emissions ". But despite its denials, the US oil industry will find itself facing more and more lawsuits. The Center for Climate Integrity has already counted 33 ongoing lawsuits in the US brought by state and local governments against the oil majors. Among the most recent, the one launched by California in September 2023 against ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron could hurt. The state is asking the court to require the oil companies to pay for environmental damage and impose fines for their lies about climate change. Between claims of greenwashing and climate damage, the legal actions brought by the public authorities virtually all denounce the oil majors' climate denial. The Congressional report provides them with new arguments to put forward in these proceedings.
When it comes to resources, this week's common sense advice might be "don't put all your eggs in one basket". Especially when it comes to rare earths and other minerals essential to the transition. And yet! One of the conclusions of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) second report on metals critical to the green transition, published this Friday, May 17, is precisely that market concentration has increased between 2020 and 2023 (particularly with regard to nickel, cobalt and copper) and, above all, that this dynamic is likely to continue over the next decade. "Overall, the supply landscape is a little better than it was two years ago, even if there's still work to be done. But the same cannot be said for diversification," explains the report, quoted by L'Usine Nouvelle. A good graph is worth a thousand words:
If you hadn't guessed, red represents China. Unsurprisingly, it's omnipresent. More than half of the new copper, lithium and cobalt refineries planned between now and the end of the decade will be located in the Asian giant (which is also the world's biggest consumer of metals). Even more worryingly, the IEA estimates that Beijing will account for 70% of rare-earth refining for electric motors and almost 95% of the world's battery-grade graphite production. On the mining side, the majority of lithium will still come from Australia and Chile (which China should overtake, however), and more than half of nickel and cobalt will continue to come, respectively, from Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (two potentially unstable countries where Chinese capital already controls a substantial share of mining production). In other words, as L'Usine Nouvelle puts it: " The geopolitical risk is set to last in green transition metals. "
The objectively rather good bad news of the week is Saudi Arabia's return to lucidity. Remember the pharaonic project presented in 2021, "The Line", this futuristic vertical city built in the middle of the desert, an oasis of concrete and high tech in the middle of nothing, cooled by a giant air-conditioning system and giant swimming pools? Its announced length was 170 kilometers. Three years later, ambitions have been scaled back. Drastically! L'Usine Nouvelle reveals that, by 2030, it should be just 2.4 kilometers long, i.e. seventy times shorter. At (RE)SET, we find this hard to regret.
And finally, this week's "Nos amies les bêtes" (Our animal friends) are the canine brigades of the Perpignan metropolitan area (which includes 36 communes)! In France, around 20% of drinking water transported is lost through leaks in the distribution network. Some local authorities are doing everything in their power to improve this yield, not least thanks to these canine brigades, made up of dogs trained to sniff out chlorine odours and detect underground leaks. For the Metropole of Perpignan, the local authority's stated objective is to reduce the leakage rate to 10% by 2035. We applaud. Ouaf ouaf (apocryphal quote from the dog in the photo)
Biodiversity obliges, and the concept of the week comes, for once, from across the Channel: "No Mow May". The newspaper Libération took an interest in this movement, which is spreading across the UK and involves not mowing your lawn low in May. With the return of fine weather, are you perhaps itching to get out the lawnmower and clear the way for deckchairs and parasols in the garden? Not so fast, though. The wild grasses on your lawn are the best allies for biodiversity. Six years ago, the "No Mow May" movement was born to deconstruct the obligation to mow your lawn, and is now inspiring even public gardens in France. The aim is to leave your lawnmower in the garage for the whole month of May, to give nature a break. With seven out of ten French people owning a garden, mowing the lawn less is a way of helping to maintain biodiversity. After all, 80% of all insects have disappeared in the last thirty years - a truly silent mass extinction. In fact, mowing before the heat of summer encourages water evaporation and therefore "increases the risk of drought and yellowing of the lawn". Leaving at least ten centimetres of grass, on the other hand, spares birdsfoot trefoil, daisies and clover, all plants teeming with life beneath our feet. Birds can find seeds and insects to feed on, earthworms aerate the soil, creating fine channels that allow rainwater to disperse evenly, and butterflies come to enjoy the nectar from the flowers. In short, thanks to Breaking (RE)NEWS, you've found the perfect excuse to save your back and not mow the lawn. No need to thank us
Last week's riddle was a photograph, in which you were asked to guess what moment it froze on film, as we used to say when there was still film. The clue was that it wasn't Ukraine, because it was actually taken in February... in Aveyron. It's about a lithium battery warehouse fire: 1,276 tons of lithium batteries volatilized in an inferno. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse: last month, near Lyon, a new 1,000 m² battery warehouse caught fire, and with it, 2 million batteries dedicated to electronic labels on store shelves. According to Libération, which quotes François Excoffier, president of the Fédération des entreprises de recyclage, " between 2014 and 2019, fires at [their] recycling sites increased by 150%, with around 150 fires every year ". Without specifying whether all these accidents were linked to lithium batteries, he nevertheless targeted them, speaking of a " fire bomb that is being spread everywhere ".
This week's riddle sounds ridiculously easy, but it's not. What is the highest point in the world? Here's a hint: don't try to remember your elementary school lessons, it's not the right answer!
[As a reminder, (RE)SET, founded in 2019, is the first independent consultancy dedicated to economic and environmental transition and cut out for action. "(RE)SET: resources to win environmental and economic battles!" Necessarily partial, sometimes biased, always committed, this media review with its often lively, even impertinent tone in no way commits (RE)SET to its consulting activities, but it does paint what we consider to be an interesting portrait of the state of the transition as reflected in the press and research. A snapshot of the debate, the forces at play, the oppositions, the convergences, which we hope will be useful for your decisions and the construction of your transition strategies].
