With the motor show upon us, the press is overflowing these days with articles and viewpoints, often contradictory and sometimes tinged with bad faith, about cars. It must be said that between isolated residents of vast countries and Parisians living without a car, or conversely those who enjoy listening to FIP in Sunday evening traffic jams on the ring road, everyone has their own opinion! In truth, as in other environmental matters, the answer lies in nuance and pragmatism. Yes, a car (or even a plane!) in Nevada, hard to do without. Same goes for some of our rural areas. Car sharing is good too. Cycling, electric or not, is also beneficial. Everywhere, intermodality is definitely the key!
But another debate is taking precedence over all others: the "wattcar." The wattcar, that electric vehicle destined to replace, by 2035, our "old bangers" with their smoky, sputtering combustion engines. Reduced CO2 emissions in the air but production with a concerning environmental impact, energy efficiency versus dependence on rare minerals—the electric car concentrates all the paradoxical demands of the environmental and economic transition. These demands are also reflected in the hesitations of the European regulator, fluctuating with elections. But unless European legislation changes (which would be like breaking the thermometer to ignore the illness), the sector has no choice but to address these issues proactively.
The French government wants to increase the number of cars produced in France to 2 million by 2030—while half the value of an electric car lies in its battery, electric motors, and software. These are all components, and often new players, that, for now, are not French. Similarly, the overwhelming majority of rare earths used in batteries are extracted and, more importantly, refined in China—90% of them. Today and for the foreseeable future, China is the only country that has managed to build the entire value chain for electric vehicle production on its own soil.
The ultimate goal of French and European policies is not to "annoy the French," as Pompidou said, nor even to burden the struggling European automotive industry, but rather to rethink transportation, reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, and also (re)establish European champions. The scientific consensus is clear: there is no decarbonization of the economic activity possible without decarbonizing transportation. In calculating the emissions of an electric car over its entire lifecycle, some uncertainties remain, but the scientific consensus is also clear on this point: the electric car always wins against the combustion engine car.
According to ADEME, the environmental impact of an electric vehicle will be even better depending on the energy mix used for charging it, as well as its weight and battery power, and the intensity of its use. If it's a second car, it might as well be light. In short, it's not that simple. And that's just as well, because at (RE)SET, we love challenges and we want to start thinking about solutions!
The environmental impact, particularly the use of rare minerals, must be offset by extending the lifespan and enabling repairs. Ironically, the electric car can align with the economic model long developed by its cousin, the combustion engine car. Indeed, this sector has long been "at the forefront of good practices in reuse, repair, and second-hand parts, rich with a diverse and dynamic economic ecosystem", as the association HOP (Halting Planned Obsolescence) reminds us.
The ethics of the battery supply chain must be ensured through increased traceability of raw materials. Production processes, always in pursuit of greater profitability, are also under scrutiny. For example, "giga-casting," a technique involving producing multiple car parts as a single block, can lead to potentially replacing the entire car (cheaper than repairing it!) even after a minor impact. Tesla has recently backtracked on this approach.
Finally, the sector will need to organize and structure itself, bringing together all its stakeholders, to manage the end-of-life of batteries—and particularly tackle the challenge of recycling them. Additionally, there is a strong need to enhance skills and expertise for the maintenance and repair of electric vehicles.
Designing cars is good, but being able to use them is even better! France would need four times more charging points than currently available by 2030—and these must be deployed across the entire territory (not just in cities) to ensure the feasibility of long-distance journeys.
Designing good cars and being able to use them is good, but wanting to use them is even better! The consumer, as often in matters of transition, will have the final say. And if we do not want this particular transition to also lead to rejection and worsen social inequalities, manufacturers must play along. In short: their vehicles must be designed for family use at "accessible" prices. Everything points in the same direction: for "wattcars" to develop optimally for society and the environment, they must be simple, sturdy, repairable, light, and affordable. We are still far from that. This is the whole challenge for one of the stars of the motor show, the electric Renault 5. On the other hand, the future R4, or 4L, a symbol of the "people's car" from the 60s and 70s, unveiled these days, misses the price criterion, if specialized media are to be believed: two years of the minimum wage is not reasonable for democratizing the wattcar!
Ultimately, and as we regularly remind at (RE)SET, the environmental transition is not "magical." In 2024, the conversion bonus for electric vehicles saw its maximum amount reduced by €1,000. French manufacturers will have to adapt and offer low-cost electric vehicles, as some Chinese automakers are doing. France and the EU face a new dilemma: increasingly raise tariffs, "American-style," to protect them from Chinese competition, or, conversely, stimulate that competition to lower prices—in favor of French consumers. Some industrial players have chosen to tackle the problem the other way around: Stellantis has announced it will sell "wattcars" from the Chinese brand Leap Motors starting in the fall of 2024, after becoming a shareholder in the company last October. Chinese manufacturers, for their part, are persuaded by high tariffs to set up their factories directly in Europe. They are technologically ahead. It's up to us to do as the Middle Kingdom did 20 years ago, for example in the railway sector: pair these investments with obligations for technology and "know-how" sharing...
The automotive industry must prepare to climb Mount Everest in a wattcar. Get your chains ready. Watt else?!
Géraldine Poivert
